Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1266

   Mesoscale Discussion 1266
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0517 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of extreme southern MN into far northern IA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 122217Z - 122345Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated strong to locally severe storms are possible into
   this evening.

   DISCUSSION...Isolated storms have developed in the vicinity of a
   surface front across far southern MN. Frontal convergence and weak
   low-level warm advection may continue to support development of an
   additional strong storm or two near the front into this evening.
   MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg near/south of the front combined with
   effective shear of 30-35 kt could support marginal supercell
   potential with a threat for isolated hail and damaging wind, and
   possibly a brief tornado if any supercell can persist in the
   vicinity of the surface boundary.

   ..Dean/Smith.. 06/12/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...

   LAT...LON   44029536 44009358 43839286 43619285 43259321 43129425
               43189522 43259545 43429556 43529559 43599558 43899556
               44029536 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN