Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1265

   Mesoscale Discussion 1265
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0514 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

   Areas affected...portions of southeast Colorado and eastern New
   Mexico

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 122214Z - 130015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Occasional severe gusts and large hail may occur this
   afternoon across portions of southeast Colorado and eastern New
   Mexico. A watch is not anticipated.

   DISCUSSION...Convection has developed in weak upslope surface flow
   along the lee of the higher terrain across portions of central
   Colorado and New Mexico. Strong mixing on the High Plains has
   resulted in inverted-V thermodynamic profiles with approximately
   1000 J/kg MLCAPE per mesoanalysis and short-term RAP forecast
   profiles. Generally, low-level and deep-layer shear are marginal for
   supercells, particularly across northeast New Mexico and southeast
   Colorado, and some transient mid-level mesocyclones are apparent on
   WSR-88D radar. Some clustering of storms may occur with time given
   strong cold pools, and this may result in a risk for severe gusts.
   Additionally, given the weak low-level shear and low freezing
   levels, some marginally severe hail may be possible. Due to the
   expected sparse coverage of severe weather, a watch is not
   anticipated.

   ..Supinie/Smith.. 06/12/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MAF...PUB...BOU...ABQ...EPZ...

   LAT...LON   37570523 38560477 38590381 38110350 36160348 34310369
               33160418 32870473 32990530 33860555 35790556 37570523 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN