Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1261

   Mesoscale Discussion 1261
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0304 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

   Areas affected...South-Central/Southeast WY...NE
   Panhandle...Northeast/East-Central CO

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 122004Z - 122200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to evolve into one or more
   convective lines capable of damaging gusts over the next several
   hours. Some isolated hail is possible as well.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm coverage continues to increase across the
   higher terrain of south-central WY and north-central CO, supported
   by large-scale ascent attendant to an approaching shortwave trough.
   Persisting westerly flow aloft should result in these storms
   eventually moving off the terrain into the High Plains, where strong
   heating has resulted in a deeply mixed and modest buoyant airmass.
   Expectation is for storms to evolve into one or more
   outflow-dominant convective lines over the next few hours, with an
   associated threat for damaging gusts. Some isolated hail is also
   possible, particularly if storms can maintain a more cellular mode.
   This appears most likely across southeast WY in the vicinity of a
   weak surface low. Uncertainty regarding the coverage of severe
   limits forecast confidence, but convective trends will be monitored
   closely.

   ..Mosier/Guyer.. 06/12/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...RIW...

   LAT...LON   39590513 40900554 41200709 41670732 42170675 42540599
               42840498 42840391 42310311 40220230 39020304 38720453
               39590513 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN