Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1256

   Mesoscale Discussion 1256
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0632 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

   Areas affected...extreme northeast Colorado into northern Nebraska

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 112332Z - 120100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated instance of severe wind or hail may accompany
   any storm that can become established along a baroclinic boundary. A
   WW issuance is not expected.

   DISCUSSION...Visible satellite and MRMS mosaic radar imagery depict
   an increase in deep-moist convection along a baroclinic boundary,
   extending from west-to-east mainly over northern NE. Here, 7-8 C/km
   mid-level lapse rates are overspreading a warm boundary layer
   (characterized by 90 F surface temperatures), resulting in up to
   2000 J/kg MLCAPE along the boundary. Stronger mid-level flow is
   glancing the region to the north, supporting 25-30 kts of effective
   bulk shear. This will support multicells and perhaps a transient
   supercell along the boundary, where a couple instances of severe
   wind/hail are possible. Given the isolated nature of the severe
   threat though, a WW issuance is not anticipated.

   ..Squitieri/Smith.. 06/11/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   40590294 41540252 42370127 42779919 42689773 42409724
               41979743 41689870 41239982 40850083 40440180 40590294 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN