Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1255

   Mesoscale Discussion 1255
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0615 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

   Areas affected...portions of central Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 112315Z - 120045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...The severe threat may increase over the next several
   hours. Multicells and supercells may develop with a severe hail/wind
   threat, and a tornado is also possible.

   DISCUSSION...Cumulus clouds and thunderstorms are increasing across
   the free-warm sector as the boundary layer destabilizes in the wake
   of an earlier MCS. Surface temperatures are warming into the 80s F
   amid upper 60s to lower 70s F dewpoints, contributing to 1000-1500
   J/kg MLCAPE. Mid-level lapse rates are not overly steep (i.e. 6
   C/km), and deep-layer shear remains modest. When also factoring in
   overall weak synoptic forcing for ascent, it is unclear how
   widespread and robust thunderstorms will become. However, several
   diffuse mesoscale boundaries do exist, and continued heating along
   these boundaries may support the development of enough robust storms
   to warrant the consideration of a WW issuance. Large hail and severe
   gusts would be the main severe threats, though a tornado could occur
   with a supercells that manages to anchor to a boundary.

   ..Squitieri/Smith.. 06/11/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   31300064 31709987 31949846 32059697 31969653 31679630
               31249630 30059642 29649691 29479770 29549862 29879943
               30199996 30540042 31300064 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN