Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1250

   Mesoscale Discussion 1250
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0156 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

   Areas affected...northern Iowa...southern Minnesota

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 111856Z - 112130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe wind and hail risk to continue through the
   afternoon/early evening.

   DISCUSSION...A broken line of thunderstorm activity that has a
   history of producing 50-60 mph winds continues to show winds around
   50-60 mph around 2kft on radar. Additional development is also noted
   on visible satellite on the southern periphery of this broken line.
   Some uncertainty remains on the duration of this wind threat, given
   the downstream air mass is fairly mixed and less unstable. Steep
   lapse rates and dew point depressions in the 30s to 40s may support
   strong to severe gusts with outflow as these storms advance
   eastward. 

   Additional thunderstorm development is expected later on in the
   afternoon with the ejecting wave, which may be supercellular with
   potential for damaging wind/hail. As this may be the time period of
   more appreciable threat, watch timing remains uncertain. However,
   should the broken line advancing east out of SD continue to
   intensify, a watch may be needed to cover this threat in the near
   term.

   ..Thornton/Guyer.. 06/11/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...

   LAT...LON   42869724 43339692 43949641 43989632 44219586 44219494
               44079366 43979244 43629188 42679165 42339175 42049218
               42029427 42119588 42309691 42339698 42659732 42869724 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN