Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1249

   Mesoscale Discussion 1249
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1115 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

   Areas affected...Southeast VA into Northeast NC

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 111615Z - 111815Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms may produce
   gusty winds and small hail through the afternoon. The severe risk is
   expected to remain low, and a watch is not currently expected.

   DISCUSSION...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms have
   developed early this afternoon as strong heating of a very moist
   airmass has resulted in weak to moderate destabilization across the
   region. Modest mid/upper west/southwesterly flow resides over the
   region as an upper trough lifts northeast across the Eastern
   Seaboard today. This is supporting effective shear magnitudes around
   20-25 kt, allowing for transient organized cells. Weak midlevel
   lapse rates and modest shear will likely limit longevity of any
   stronger/better organized cells. Nevertheless, cool temperatures
   aloft (around -10 C at 500 mb) and steepened low-level lapse rates
   could allow for gusty winds and small hail with the more intense
   cells. The severe risk is expected to remain low overall, and a
   watch is not expected.

   ..Leitman/Guyer.. 06/11/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...

   LAT...LON   37067726 37007608 36447561 35367565 34887648 34877679
               35217742 36437801 36817789 36927776 37067726 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN