Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1248

   Mesoscale Discussion 1248
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1125 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

   Areas affected...parts of Deep South Texas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 407...

   Valid 110425Z - 110530Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 407
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The risk for severe wind gusts may across and southwest
   through south of the Greater San Antonio vicinity through Midnight-1
   AM CDT.

   DISCUSSION...Cold pool propagation into the I-35 corridor near and
   south of San Antonio has been at rather modest speeds of 20 kt or
   so, and peak 3-second gusts along the gust front have recently been
   measured around 40 kts.  However, the most vigorous convection only
   slightly trails the gust front, and is becoming better organized,
   with a meso-beta scale cyclonic circulation now forming to the west
   of San Antonio.  This may be accompanied by strengthening westerly
   rear inflow and downdrafts, aided by heavy precipitation loading,
   near and to the southwest through south of Greater San Antonio
   through 05-06Z.

   ..Kerr.. 06/11/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...

   LAT...LON   27820057 28659949 29999892 29929796 28079827 27130008
               27120082 27820057 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN