Storm Prediction Center Severe Thunderstorm Watch 406
4 min read
3 days ago
Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended. Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.
SEL6
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 406
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
145 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southeast New Mexico
Far West int West Texas
* Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 145 PM until
900 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase over the
next few hours as the airmass continues to destabilize. Steep
mid-level lapse rates and moderate deep-layer shear will support
supercells, with large to very large hail as the primary hazard.
Over time, upscale growth into a convective line is possible, with
this line then progressing southeastward into more of west Texas.
Damaging gusts are the primary risk once this linear transition
occurs.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 110
statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles northeast of
Carlsbad NM to 70 miles southwest of Dryden TX. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
27030.
...Mosier
SEL6
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 406
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
145 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southeast New Mexico
Far West int West Texas
* Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 145 PM until
900 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase over the
next few hours as the airmass continues to destabilize. Steep
mid-level lapse rates and moderate deep-layer shear will support
supercells, with large to very large hail as the primary hazard.
Over time, upscale growth into a convective line is possible, with
this line then progressing southeastward into more of west Texas.
Damaging gusts are the primary risk once this linear transition
occurs.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 110
statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles northeast of
Carlsbad NM to 70 miles southwest of Dryden TX. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
27030.
...Mosier
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW6
WW 406 SEVERE TSTM NM TX 101845Z - 110200Z
AXIS..110 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
35NE CNM/CARLSBAD NM/ - 70SW 6R6/DRYDEN TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 95NM E/W /55SE CME - 76SE MRF/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27030.
LAT...LON 32660195 29310121 29310486 32660574
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU6.
Watch 406 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.
Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes
Low (<2%)
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
Mod (50%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
Low (20%)
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
Mod (40%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
Mod (40%)
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
High (80%)
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The “Low” category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (EF2-EF5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
“Moderate” from 30% to 60%, and “High” from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
