Storm Prediction Center Severe Thunderstorm Watch 404
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Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended. Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.
SEL4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 404
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
655 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southeast New Mexico
West and West-Central Texas
* Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 655 PM
until 200 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Multiple supercells should pose a threat for large to very
large hail up to 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter this evening. A cluster
of thunderstorms may eventually spread southeastward from eastern
and southeast New Mexico into parts of west Texas. If this occurs,
then a greater threat for scattered severe/damaging winds would
exist later this evening into the early overnight hours.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50
statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles north of
Carlsbad NM to 30 miles north of Junction TX. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 401...WW 403...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
30025.
...Gleason
SEL4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 404
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
655 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southeast New Mexico
West and West-Central Texas
* Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 655 PM
until 200 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Multiple supercells should pose a threat for large to very
large hail up to 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter this evening. A cluster
of thunderstorms may eventually spread southeastward from eastern
and southeast New Mexico into parts of west Texas. If this occurs,
then a greater threat for scattered severe/damaging winds would
exist later this evening into the early overnight hours.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50
statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles north of
Carlsbad NM to 30 miles north of Junction TX. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 401...WW 403...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
30025.
...Gleason
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW4
WW 404 SEVERE TSTM NM TX 092355Z - 100700Z
AXIS..50 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
35N CNM/CARLSBAD NM/ - 30N JCT/JUNCTION TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 45NM N/S /35SSE CME - 21N JCT/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..65 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 30025.
LAT...LON 33560427 31689977 30239977 32110427
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU4.
Watch 404 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 404
VALID 100250Z - 100340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW INK TO
35 WNW HOB TO 45 NNW HOB.
..SQUITIERI..06/10/25
ATTN...WFO...MAF...SJT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 404
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NMC025-100340-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LEA
$$
TXC003-081-095-103-105-115-135-165-173-227-235-267-317-327-329-
335-353-383-413-431-435-451-461-475-495-100340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDREWS COKE CONCHO
CRANE CROCKETT DAWSON
ECTOR GAINES GLASSCOCK
HOWARD IRION KIMBLE
MARTIN MENARD MIDLAND
MITCHELL NOLAN REAGAN
SCHLEICHER STERLING SUTTON
TOM GREEN UPTON WARD
WINKLER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 404
VALID 100145Z - 100240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1235
..SQUITIERI..06/10/25
ATTN...WFO...MAF...SJT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 404
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NMC015-025-100240-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
EDDY LEA
$$
TXC003-081-095-103-105-115-135-165-173-227-235-267-301-317-327-
329-335-353-383-413-431-435-451-461-475-495-100240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDREWS COKE CONCHO
CRANE CROCKETT DAWSON
ECTOR GAINES GLASSCOCK
HOWARD IRION KIMBLE
LOVING MARTIN MENARD
MIDLAND MITCHELL NOLAN
REAGAN SCHLEICHER STERLING
SUTTON TOM GREEN UPTON
WARD WINKLER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes
Low (<2%)
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
Mod (40%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
Mod (30%)
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
Mod (40%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
Mod (40%)
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
High (70%)
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The “Low” category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (EF2-EF5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
“Moderate” from 30% to 60%, and “High” from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
