Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1241

   Mesoscale Discussion 1241
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0143 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

   Areas affected...eastern North Carolina

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 101843Z - 101945Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Primarily strong gusts (40-55 mph) likely but localized
   severe gusts possible (55-65 mph) through 5 pm EDT.

   DISCUSSION...A long-lived thunderstorm band with an associated MCV
   is moving northeast around 45 kt across eastern North Carolina. 
   Broken cloud cover ahead of the ongoing storms is acting to temper
   heating with lower 80s deg F temperatures being observed within a
   seasonably moist airmass (lower 70s dewpoints).  A 53-kt gust was
   recorded at 1739z at the Wilmington ASOS (KILM).  The Wilmington
   WSR-88D VAD showed a rear-inflow jet with flow in the 1-3 km layer
   increasing from 25-35 kt to 50-60 kt.  This corresponding increase
   in flow coincided with the passage of the thunderstorm band.  Given
   a sufficiently destabilized airmass across the coastal plain and
   barrier islands, it is plausible the strong to severe wind threat
   will continue through much of the afternoon as this activity
   continues northeastward.  The overall limited spatial coverage of
   60+ mph gusts will likely preclude a severe thunderstorm watch
   issuance.

   ..Smith/Mosier.. 06/10/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

   LAT...LON   34827874 34997884 35207867 36497624 36447563 36257537
               35257525 34537633 34277722 34287748 34827874 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH