Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1238

   Mesoscale Discussion 1238
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0239 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

   Areas affected...Portions of West Texas into the Trans Pecos

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 100739Z - 100915Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe wind threat may persist for a few more hours.

   DISCUSSION...A MCS across West Texas has become mostly outflow
   dominant and sub-severe. Some stronger winds are still being sampled
   by the KMAF radar north of Midland, but given the structure of the
   reflectivity and orientation of the outflow, do not expect the
   severe wind threat to persist much longer from these storms. Farther
   south, a few stronger cells are persisting west of Midland. These
   storms are in an environment with greater instability and stronger
   shear. In addition, the outflow is more favorably oriented to the
   deep-layer shear vector. Therefore, this cluster of storms may
   persist for several more hours as it moves southeast with a primary
   threat of severe wind gusts.

   ..Bentley/Hart.. 06/10/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   32100293 31720220 31030182 30760238 30880308 31340353
               31800372 31970376 32100293 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN