Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1237

   Mesoscale Discussion 1237
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1051 PM CDT Mon Jun 09 2025

   Areas affected...portions of southwestern Texas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 404...

   Valid 100351Z - 100515Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 404
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Severe hail should accompany ongoing supercells for at
   least a few more hours. Propagation of the southern end of an MCS is
   possible, which may also pose a severe gust threat.

   DISCUSSION...Multiple mature, sustained supercells continue to
   traverse the immediate cool side of a residual outflow boundary from
   yesterday's storms, where 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE and 40-50 kts of
   effective bulk shear remain in place. MRMS mosaic MESH data
   continues to show potentially very large hail falling with multiple
   supercells, so severe hail potential should continue in the near
   future.

   The south end of a mature QLCS may be propagating southeastward
   along the residual outflow boundary. If this convection can mature
   further, a severe gust threat may manifest.

   ..Squitieri.. 06/10/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   32680313 32850257 32790178 31510004 30729938 30399951
               30340015 30440063 30870123 31420199 31790259 32050298
               32290316 32680313 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN