Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1235

   Mesoscale Discussion 1235
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0838 PM CDT Mon Jun 09 2025

   Areas affected...portions of western Texas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 404...

   Valid 100138Z - 100315Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 404
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Very large hail (2+ inches in diameter) may still occur
   with some of the stronger, sustained supercells. Supercell
   development closer to the NM/TX border is likely.

   DISCUSSION...Multiple supercells have matured along residual
   convective outflow, with MRMS MESH tracks indicating 2+ inch stones
   falling, and 2.5 inch hail also reported. With 2000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE
   residing ahead of these storms, additional instances of significant
   severe hail may occur. Visible satellite imagery indicates attempts
   at convective initiation along the boundary closer to the NM/TX
   border. Any storms that can develop and mature may produce
   significant-severe hail.

   ..Squitieri.. 06/10/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   31850239 32270327 32630366 32830347 32630263 32430181
               32140100 31780014 31159961 30709972 30600021 30930115
               31850239 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN