Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1233

   Mesoscale Discussion 1233
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0639 PM CDT Mon Jun 09 2025

   Areas affected...portions of eastern New Mexico

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 403...

   Valid 092339Z - 100115Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 403
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Severe hail and wind remain possible with ongoing storms
   approaching eastern NM. Later this evening, upscale growth into an
   MCS, with southeastward propagation, is possible.

   DISCUSSION...Several multicells and occasional supercells have
   developed over the past few hours, with an instance of significant
   severe (2.5 inches) already observed. Additional instances of severe
   hail/wind may occur as storms continue to move and/or develop
   eastward into eastern NM, where 30+ kts of effective bulk shear and
   1500 J/kg MLCAPE reside. The western extent of a diffuse outflow
   boundary from yesterday's severe episode in TX extends to the TX/NM
   border area. If current storm congeal into an MCS, it is near this
   boundary that storms will propagate later this evening, perhaps
   accompanied by continued severe wind potential.

   ..Squitieri.. 06/09/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

   LAT...LON   33080527 34540581 35550562 36440443 36570359 36310332
               34990329 34000330 33390350 32980404 33080527 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN