Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1231

   Mesoscale Discussion 1231
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0554 PM CDT Mon Jun 09 2025

   Areas affected...portions of west-central Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 092254Z - 100030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...A few severe storms may develop this evening, with severe
   wind and hail a concern. A WW issuance may be needed if greater
   storm coverage becomes apparent.

   DISCUSSION...Attempts of convective initiation have been noted amid
   an agitated CU field along a remnant outflow boundary amid afternoon
   peak heating. It is possible that multiple storms may develop over
   the next few hours. Should this occur, 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE amid 40
   kts of effective bulk shear will promote the maturation of
   supercells atop a heated, well-mixed boundary layer. Severe wind and
   hail would be the primary threat with these storms. The strongest of
   supercells could produce hail exceeding 2 inches in diameter.
   Therefore, if the development of multiple supercells becomes
   apparent, a WW issuance may eventually be needed.

   ..Squitieri/Gleason.. 06/09/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   32390191 32010060 31399970 30809921 30459923 30319966
               30290039 30680102 31190164 31770204 32390191 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN