Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1230

   Mesoscale Discussion 1230
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0542 PM CDT Mon Jun 09 2025

   Areas affected...Central Great Lakes

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 402...

   Valid 092242Z - 100015Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 402
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Marginally severe hail and wind remain possible for the
   next few hours.

   DISCUSSION...Deep cyclonic flow is decidedly westerly across much of
   lower MI early this evening. Scattered thunderstorms have developed
   in response to the cyclone, and are spreading east across eastern
   portions of ww0402. However, diagnostic data exhibits poor buoyancy,
   and MLCAPE is generally less than 500 J/kg ahead of this activity.
   Most updrafts are struggling to maintain intensity, though
   marginally severe hail might be noted within the strongest updrafts
   at times. Current thinking is locally strong, to perhaps marginally
   severe, thunderstorms will propagate across the remainder of ww0402
   over the next few hours, and gradually weaken as they approach the
   western shores of Lake Huron/Erie.

   ..Darrow.. 06/09/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...

   LAT...LON   41668555 43208462 45018431 45438343 43708319 41468457
               41668555 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN