Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1226

   Mesoscale Discussion 1226
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0158 PM CDT Mon Jun 09 2025

   Areas affected...northern MS/AL

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 091858Z - 092030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms may occasionally produce strong
   wind gusts through the afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed across northern MS ahead
   of a surface front. Filtered heating and dewpoints in the low 70s is
   supporting moderate instability. Downstream into northern AL,
   instability remains somewhat suppressed on the norther side of an
   MCV from overnight/morning convection that is now centered over
   central AL. While modest vertical shear is present across the
   region, overall modest instability and weaker low to mid-level lapse
   rates should generally limit a greater severe risk. Nevertheless,
   occasional strong gusts will be possible, especially if any
   clustering/updraft consolidation occurs. A watch is not currently
   expected, though trends will continue to be monitored.

   ..Leitman/Mosier.. 06/09/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

   LAT...LON   35028951 35058599 34508554 33788588 33648791 33818940
               34059007 34519013 34749007 35028951 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN