Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1216

   Mesoscale Discussion 1216
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0926 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025

   Areas affected...portions of northern Texas into extreme southeast
   Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 396...399...

   Valid 090226Z - 090400Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 396, 399
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Widespread severe winds are expected across northern Texas
   with a growing MCS. Further organization into a bow echo is
   possible, along with 75-100 mph gusts.

   DISCUSSION...Several supercells and intense multicellular clusters
   have begun to merge, and they are likely connected by a singular
   strong/deep cold pool. This resultant MCS continues to track
   southeastward, with a history of several severe gusts, including
   those measured at 80-100 mph. Very strong instability and 40-50 kts
   of effective bulk shear precede this MCS. A derecho is likely over
   the next several hours, with additional 75-100 mph gusts embedded
   within a broader swath of 60+ mph winds expected, as also shown by
   some of the latest WoFS ensemble output.

   ..Squitieri.. 06/09/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...

   LAT...LON   32430009 32749998 33539855 34349739 34719704 34509570
               34309512 34139487 33769459 33099440 32509471 32019522
               31709597 31549686 31459776 31479852 31979959 32239999
               32430009 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...85-100 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN