Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1211

   Mesoscale Discussion 1211
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0618 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025

   Areas affected...portions of northern and eastern Texas to extreme
   western Louisiana

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 397...

   Valid 082318Z - 090045Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 397
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Multiple supercells will continue to traverse a diffuse
   baroclinic boundary and pose a risk for severe hail and wind over
   the next few hours. A greater severe risk is expected to evolve
   later this evening with other storms that approach from the west.

   DISCUSSION...Multiple mature supercells are in progress across
   northern TX to the LA border along a diffuse baroclinic boundary.
   Severe hail has been reported with some storms, and current MRMS
   mosaic MESH data suggests that 2-3 inch hail may be falling with the
   more dominant supercells. Given the 4000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE and 50+
   kts of effective bulk shear still in place, these storms should
   continue to pose a significant-severe hail and wind risk for at
   least a few more hours.

   Eventually, supercells across the southeast TX Panhandle should
   merge into an MCS as they approach from the west. While the exact
   timing and evolution of this scenario is still somewhat uncertain,
   the general thinking is that a bow echo with an organized
   significant severe wind swath will approach the region, with peak
   gusts in the 70-100 mph range. Future MCDs will be written for
   northern TX as this scenario comes closer to fruition.

   ..Squitieri.. 06/08/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...

   LAT...LON   32339849 33249714 33389634 32619403 31859365 31469384
               31469495 31769664 32009798 32339849 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN