Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1208

   Mesoscale Discussion 1208
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0518 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025

   Areas affected...Northeast OK/southeast KS into southwest MO

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 395...

   Valid 082218Z - 082345Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 395
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe storms may continue into early
   evening.

   DISCUSSION...Scattered strong storms are ongoing in the vicinity of
   a cold front from southeast KS/northeast OK into southwest MO.
   Moderate to strong buoyancy (with MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg) and
   effective shear of 30-35 kt will continue to support strong to
   locally severe storms. Large hail and locally damaging winds are the
   most likely hazards in the short term, though some tornado threat
   cannot be ruled out with any supercells that can be sustained and
   not be undercut by outflow in this regime. Given the concentration
   of ongoing storms, some modest clustering cannot be ruled out as
   convection spreads southeastward with time. 

   With the severe threat spreading southward across northeast OK, WW
   395 has been locally expanded to the south, and additional
   expansions may be needed depending on convective trends.

   ..Dean.. 06/08/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...

   LAT...LON   36719392 36479458 35989529 35889582 35849630 35899676
               36339694 37359694 37499543 37479490 37459425 36719392 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN