Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1203

   Mesoscale Discussion 1203
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0330 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025

   Areas affected...portions of western Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 082030Z - 082230Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Large hail and severe wind threat may increase through the
   afternoon/early evening.

   DISCUSSION...Supercells have developed across the Davis Mountains in
   far western Texas this afternoon. The environment in this region is
   characterized by MLCAPE around 500-1500 J/kg, steep lapse rates, and
   deep layer shear around 40-45 kts. This will support potential for
   supercells to produce some instances of large to very large hail and
   severe winds. MLCIN does increase with eastward extent, which may
   limit coverage/duration of this threat. This area will be monitored
   for watch potential.

   ..Thornton/Guyer.. 06/08/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   29800412 30300418 30990396 31410372 31650345 31940245
               31920237 31890198 31820184 31710152 31560128 31290120
               31070124 30440146 29940167 29580238 29230274 29010296
               28930336 29180377 29800412 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN