Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1197

   Mesoscale Discussion 1197
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1204 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025

   Areas affected...portions of VA/MD

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 081704Z - 081830Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered strong/severe storms are
   possible through the afternoon. Damaging gusts will be the main
   hazard but a tornado and sporadic hail also are possible.

   DISCUSSION...Isolated convection is develop early this afternoon in
   a weakly unstable airmass in the vicinity of an effective warm front
   draped across northern VA toward coastal MD. As additional heating
   occurs over the Blue Ridge, thunderstorm coverage should increase
   and storms will move across the Piedmont and Chesapeake Bay vicinity
   through the afternoon. Overall instability and midlevel lapse rates
   will remain modest. However, effective shear around 30-40 kt will
   support organized cells. Where steeper low-level lapse rates develop
   amid stronger heating, strong/severe gusts will be possible.
   Low-level shear will be somewhat enhanced along the warm front, as
   is evident in the LWX VWP, which shows a mildly enlarged and
   favorably curved low-level hodograph. Rotating storms interacting
   with the warm front could pose a risk for a brief tornado or two.
   The area is being evaluated for possible watch issuance.

   ..Leitman/Guyer.. 06/08/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK...

   LAT...LON   38987851 39297781 39267736 39157695 38847623 38407580
               37587544 36967538 36607571 36577610 36557726 36777834
               37207889 38027910 38577893 38987851 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN