Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1194

   Mesoscale Discussion 1194
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0257 AM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025

   Areas affected...the southern Texas Panhandle vicinity

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 080757Z - 080930Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A large hail/severe wind threat will continue this
   morning.

   DISCUSSION...A cluster of supercells across the western Texas
   Panhandle earlier this morning has consolidated into a strong
   supercell across the southern Panhandle. MRMS MESH is sampling
   baseball sized hail with a 2" hail report from Canyon where a
   mesonet site in Canyon, TX recently measured 84 mph. The environment
   ahead of this supercell could support maintenance of the storm at
   this intensity through the morning. However, there is considerable
   uncertainty regarding evolution of this cell. Surface based
   inhibition is quite strong and large-scale forcing is weak.
   Therefore, the range of solutions shown by 00Z CAM guidance all
   appear possible, which includes weakening of this supercell within
   the next 1 to 2 hours, continuation through 14/15Z until demise, and
   upscale growth into a MCS which persists through the morning. For as
   long as this cell persists at its current intensity, hail up to
   baseball sized and wind gusts of 80 to 90 mph will be possible.

   ..Bentley/Hart.. 06/08/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   35160197 35120158 34980125 34670090 34420074 34070068
               33920091 34010133 34140155 34370174 34700198 35020218
               35160197 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN