Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1191

   Mesoscale Discussion 1191
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1027 PM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of southern OK and north TX

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 080327Z - 080530Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Strong to potentially severe storms may develop later
   tonight.

   DISCUSSION...A band of cumulus remains evident late this evening on
   IR imagery across parts of southern OK into north-central/northwest
   TX, near a weak confluence zone. One attempt at convective
   initiation appears to be underway near the Red River, and 00Z CAM
   guidance continues to indicate potential for storm development later
   tonight across the region. Aside from modest low-level warm
   advection, large-scale ascent may remain relatively nebulous,
   resulting in uncertainty regarding storm coverage and duration into
   the overnight hours. However, rich low-level moisture, strong
   buoyancy, and favorable deep-layer shear will support a conditional
   supercell threat if any storms can become sustained within this
   environment. Watch issuance is possible if development of multiple
   severe storms appears to be imminent.

   ..Dean/Gleason.. 06/08/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...

   LAT...LON   34249545 33319538 32919541 32789590 32729718 32669805
               32369922 33009995 33459994 34079966 34329769 34349587
               34249545 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN