Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1181

   Mesoscale Discussion 1181
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0339 PM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of northeastern NM into the far western TX/OK
   Panhandles

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 072039Z - 072145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...The severe risk, including isolated large hail and locally
   severe gusts, could spread southeastward into this evening. The area
   is being monitored for a possible watch.

   DISCUSSION...An isolated thunderstorm has recently intensified over
   the Raton Mesa. Ahead of this storm, visible satellite imagery shows
   a band of shallow cumulus extending west-northwestward from the TX
   Panhandle -- which generally highlights the lower/middle 60s
   dewpoints and related moderate surface-based instability. If this
   isolated storm can persist southeastward through this corridor, a
   long/straight hodograph (40-50 kt of effective shear) would support
   one or more discrete supercells capable of producing large hail and
   locally severe gusts. The area is being monitored for a possible
   watch.

   ..Weinman/Thompson.. 06/07/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AMA...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   36140422 36450436 36750433 36940404 36990376 36920325
               36740283 36450237 36010201 35660198 35280233 35330303
               36140422 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN