Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1177

   Mesoscale Discussion 1177
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0106 PM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of southeast TN northern/central GA...and far
   western NC/SC

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 071806Z - 072030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...The risk of severe wind gusts will spread eastward into
   the area later this afternoon into the evening. A watch is likely
   for parts of the area by 19Z.

   DISCUSSION...An MCS is gradually organizing over northwestern AL
   this afternoon, and is expected to continue tracking eastward into
   southeastern TN, northern/central GA, and eventually the western
   Carolinas later this afternoon into the evening. The air mass ahead
   of these storms continues to diurnally destabilize, with upwards of
   2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE expected (highest over northern/central GA).
   This, coupled with 30-40 kt of westerly effective shear, should
   support the maintenance of the MCS along/south an east/west-oriented
   instability gradient. While exact evolution of this system is
   somewhat uncertain (especially with eastward extent), current
   thinking is that the risk of scattered damaging wind gusts will
   overspread the area into this evening. A watch is likely for parts
   of the area by 19Z.

   ..Weinman/Thompson.. 06/07/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...

   LAT...LON   33938543 35228554 35878526 36048465 36078410 35938342
               35678308 35218291 34658287 33998286 33358302 32948339
               32848418 32898475 33148531 33938543 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN