Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1170

   Mesoscale Discussion 1170
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0153 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025

   Areas affected...portions of West Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 070653Z - 070830Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...The large hail threat will persist for a few more hours
   early this morning across parts of West Texas.

   DISCUSSION...Supercells have persisted for several hours across
   parts of West Texas, near the nose of a 35 to 40 knot low level jet
   (as sampled by the KLBB VWP). As long as this low-level jet is
   maintained across the region, expect some supercell threat to
   persist given the moderate instability and strong shear in place.
   These supercells are clearly elevated with a primary threat of large
   hail and perhaps a few severe wind gusts. No watch is anticipated
   given the relatively confined areal threat.

   ..Bentley/Hart.. 06/07/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LUB...

   LAT...LON   34260293 34270197 34220065 33780031 33550038 33490064
               33640162 33750232 33920289 34180295 34260293 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN