Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1167

   Mesoscale Discussion 1167
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1141 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025

   Areas affected...OK/TX Panhandles into western/central OK

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 381...

   Valid 070441Z - 070615Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 381 continues.

   SUMMARY...Supercells with a hail and tornado threat may continue
   into the overnight, with an increase in severe-wind potential
   possible with time.

   DISCUSSION...Intense supercells continue to move southeastward
   across the OK/TX Panhandles, with one long-lived cell currently
   moving into west-central OK. Other strong to locally severe storms
   are approaching central OK. Nocturnal cooling and increasingly
   prominent outflow are increasing MLCINH across the region, but
   favorable low-level and deep-layer shear will continue to support
   supercells with potential for tornadoes and large to very large hail
   into the early overnight hours. 

   The influence of outflow moving northward across western/central OK
   remains somewhat uncertain overnight, but in general, a
   strengthening low-level jet may support some clustering and upscale
   growth of convection overnight, generally near/north of a surface
   boundary draped from the northern TX Panhandle into northern OK.
   Should this occur, the severe-wind threat may increase with time,
   along with a continued threat of some hail and localized tornado
   potential with any persistent supercell structures.

   ..Dean.. 06/07/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...AMA...

   LAT...LON   36970091 36949943 36599724 35509647 34859669 34709804
               34739978 35280164 35570193 36000215 36520240 36830238
               36970091 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN