Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1165

   Mesoscale Discussion 1165
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0916 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of the OK/TX Panhandles into western OK

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 379...

   Valid 070216Z - 070345Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 379 continues.

   SUMMARY...Isolated supercells with a threat of tornadoes, very large
   hail, and localized severe gusts remain possible this evening. Some
   severe threat will eventually spread into parts of western/central
   OK and downstream watch issuance is likely in the next 1-2 hours.

   DISCUSSION...A long-lived supercell is moving southeastward across
   the northern TX Panhandle as of 02 UTC, with another cluster of
   supercells ongoing across far southeast CO. Strong buoyancy (MLCAPE
   2500 J/kg or greater) and deep-layer shear (effective shear of 60+
   kt) will remain quite favorable for supercell maintenance through
   the evening. Increasing low-level flow (as noted on the KAMA VWP)
   and effective SRH of greater than 200 m2/s2 will support a tornado
   threat (including localized strong-tornado potential) with these
   cells as they track just north of a quasi-stationary surface
   boundary.   

   Gradually deepening cumulus is also noted along the boundary
   southeast of the ongoing cell across the northeast TX Panhandle, and
   also into parts of western/central OK. Potential for additional
   supercell development is uncertain, but cannot be ruled out as a
   low-level warm-advection regime continues to gradually strengthen
   north of the boundary. 

   Strong storms and related outflow are also moving into parts of
   southwest OK. Some severe threat could accompany these storms in the
   short term as they move northeastward. Eventually, more organized
   convection is expected to move into west-central/northwest OK from
   the TX Panhandle, if the environment is not adversely influenced by
   the ongoing southwest OK convection. Eventual downstream watch
   issuance is likely in the next 1-2 hours across parts of
   western/central OK.

   ..Dean/Gleason.. 06/07/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   36829951 36619832 36129778 35919778 34349826 34459961
               34770020 35510123 36450254 36830282 36990219 36940105
               36930019 36829951 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN