Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1164

   Mesoscale Discussion 1164
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0857 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025

   Areas affected...portions of western Texas

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 379...

   Valid 070157Z - 070330Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 379 continues.

   SUMMARY...Very large hail and significant severe gusts remain likely
   with the stronger storms, and a couple of tornadoes cannot be ruled
   out. A downstream WW issuance may be needed if it becomes evident
   that severe storms should persist for several more hours.

   DISCUSSION...Several supercells continue to track east ahead of a
   dryline, atop an unstable warm sector. Some of these supercells have
   a history of producing large hail over 3 inches in diameter, along
   with 80+ mph wind gusts. Given up to 4000 J/kg MLCAPE preceding the
   storms, it is not out of the question for these storms to persist
   with significant severe wind/hail and sparse tornado potential for
   at least a couple more hours. 00Z RAP forecast soundings show
   convective inhibition setting in ahead of the ongoing storms, given
   15C 700 mb temperatures overspreading a nocturnally cooling boundary
   layer. As such, long-term severe potential remains unclear.
   Nonetheless, if storms show signs of persisting into west-central
   TX, a downstream WW issuance may be needed.

   ..Squitieri.. 06/07/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

   LAT...LON   32150368 33680253 34160169 34100049 33969943 33869892
               33489890 32839915 32409954 32070027 31860091 31820175
               31830306 32150368 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN