Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1161

   Mesoscale Discussion 1161
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0645 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of eastern CO/western KS/northeast NM into
   the TX/OK Panhandles

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 378...379...

   Valid 062345Z - 070115Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 378, 379 continues.

   SUMMARY...Supercells with a tornado and very large hail threat will
   continue this evening, with some increase in severe-wind potential
   possible with time.

   DISCUSSION...Widely scattered supercells are ongoing this evening
   from southeast/east-central CO into the OK Panhandle, within a
   moderately unstable and favorably sheared environment. MRMS data
   suggest the southern most cells may be producing very large hail,
   and a threat for baseball-size (or larger hail) will likely continue
   as these cells move southeastward this evening. 

   A weak surface boundary extends from southwest OK westward into the
   TX Panhandle, and then northwestward toward the Raton Mesa vicinity.
   Backed surface winds and richer low-level moisture near/north of
   this boundary could support locally greater tornado potential with
   the ongoing supercells in this area and any additional development
   this evening. 

   Farther north, a cluster of supercells over east-central CO is
   approaching northwest KS. This cluster may continue southeastward
   this evening with some potential for all severe hazards. Some
   organized severe potential will likely spread into parts of western
   KS with time, where downstream watch issuance will likely be needed.

   ..Dean/Gleason.. 06/06/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   37960447 39280303 39460242 39480196 39300150 38780107
               37900077 37120044 36390007 36230007 36020004 35800008
               35480062 35350110 35340243 35580304 36300397 36870411
               37510440 37960447 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN