Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1160

   Mesoscale Discussion 1160
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0618 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of the TX South Plains

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 379...

   Valid 062318Z - 070045Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 379 continues.

   SUMMARY...Intense supercells remain possible into this evening. The
   tornado threat may increase with time, along with a continued
   significant hail/wind risk.

   DISCUSSION...An intense supercell is ongoing at 23 UTC just east of
   Lubbock, with a history of producing very large hail. This supercell
   developed near an outflow boundary, and additional storms are
   ongoing farther west along the boundary near the TX/NM border.
   Moderate to strong buoyancy and favorable deep-layer shear will
   continue to support potential for intense supercells near the
   boundary, with a threat of very large hail and isolated but
   potentially significant severe gusts. 

   While the boundary layer remains rather warm, increasing moisture
   with eastward extent and a tendency for strengthening low-level
   shear/SRH with time will support increasing tornado potential,
   especially with supercells near/north of the outflow boundary, where
   surface winds are backed and richer low-level moisture is in place.

   ..Dean.. 06/06/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   34330307 34330177 34280049 33700019 32840018 32870240
               32970288 33240297 33560297 34330307 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN