Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1131

   Mesoscale Discussion 1131
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0432 PM CDT Thu Jun 05 2025

   Areas affected...portions of central Pennsylvania into southern New
   York

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 052132Z - 052300Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...The severe threat is increasing across portions of central
   PA into southern NY. At least a few additional instances of severe
   hail and damaging gusts are likely through the evening. A WW
   issuance may be needed, particularly near the PA/NY border if
   convective trends suggest a greater coverage of intense storms.

   DISCUSSION...A loosely organized line of thunderstorms has
   intensified over the last couple of hours, with severe hail and
   damaging gusts recently reported with some of the stronger storms.
   These storms are progressing eastward amid a marginally unstable
   airmass (i.e. 1000 J/kg MLCAPE), driven by low 60s F dewpoints
   beneath 6 C/km mid-level lapse rates. Deep-layer shear is weak
   overall, though some slightly stronger flow and gradual veering with
   height over NY is promoting modestly curved hodographs. Here,
   supercell structures are in progress, and they may continue for a
   few more hours with the overall highest severe hail/wind threat over
   the region. The severe threat should remain isolated farther to the
   southwest in central PA. A WW issuance may be needed.

   ..Squitieri/Guyer.. 06/05/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...

   LAT...LON   40737999 41757869 42577690 42927616 42777519 42227482
               41597522 41067643 40387755 40237823 40277890 40367940
               40737999 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN