Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1128

   Mesoscale Discussion 1128
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0333 PM CDT Thu Jun 05 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of southwest Kansas

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 369...

   Valid 052033Z - 052200Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 369 continues.

   SUMMARY...Risk of very large hail continues with an eastward-moving
   supercell in far southwest KS. Tornado risk may be increasing as
   well.

   DISCUSSION...Ahead of a weak lee cyclone and surface boundary over
   far southeastern CO, a supercell has evolved over far southwest KS.
   A long/mostly straight hodograph (around 50 kt of 0-6 km shear) per
   DDC VWP and moderate surface-based instability should continue to
   favor large to very large hail and locally severe gusts with this
   activity. Ahead of this storm, visible satellite imagery still shows
   billow cloud structures -- indicating antecedent boundary-layer
   static stability. However, the associated sheltered boundary layer
   should be accompanied by enhanced low-level SRH, and given the
   established mesocyclone, the tornado risk may be increasing.

   ..Weinman.. 06/05/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DDC...

   LAT...LON   37210172 37310194 37700200 37860170 37950094 37840062
               37340060 37200091 37210172 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN