Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1126

   Mesoscale Discussion 1126
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0306 PM CDT Thu Jun 05 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of central Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 052006Z - 052200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...The risk of severe wind gusts and large hail could
   continue spreading eastward across central Oklahoma this afternoon.
   Trends are being monitored for a possible downstream watch.

   DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms has become increasingly organized
   as it tracks eastward along a boundary across west-central OK, as it
   interacts with a warm/moist air mass amid 40 kt of effective shear.
   While an earlier ACARS sounding from OKC and mesoanalysis suggest
   lingering inhibition ahead of the ongoing cluster of storms,
   continued diurnal heating amid upper 60s dewpoints and modestly
   steep lapse rates could support the maintenance of these storms with
   eastward extent across central OK through the afternoon. If this
   were to occur, the 40 kt of effective shear would continue to
   promote an organized cluster (and possibly embedded supercell
   structure) -- capable of severe winds gusts and large hail.
   Convective trends are being monitored for a possible watch
   downstream of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 366.

   ..Weinman/Thompson.. 06/05/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

   LAT...LON   34849851 35209885 35649887 36069841 35969668 35769597
               35149583 34619620 34559673 34849851 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN