Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1124

   Mesoscale Discussion 1124
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0206 PM CDT Thu Jun 05 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of the southern Great Basin and Southwest

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 051906Z - 052130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Sporadic severe downbursts are possible with high-based
   thunderstorms through the afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Widely scattered high-based thunderstorms are evolving
   across the southern Great Basin into the Southwest. Diurnal heating
   beneath steep midlevel lapse rates (sampled by the 12Z VEF sounding)
   and sufficient midlevel moisture are yielding a weakly unstable air
   mass. While weak deep-layer flow/shear should generally limit storm
   longevity/organization, enhanced evaporative cooling amid the steep
   low-level lapse rates will support strong to severe downbursts with
   the stronger cores. Severe-gust potential will be maximized with any
   small clusters that can develop.

   ..Weinman/Smith.. 06/05/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GJT...FGZ...SLC...VEF...

   LAT...LON   34921429 34931511 35261560 35861614 36491621 37141608
               37741566 38451377 38471284 38151091 37751009 37030976
               36351023 35101337 34921429 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH