Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1120

   Mesoscale Discussion 1120
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1250 PM CDT Thu Jun 05 2025

   Areas affected...eastern OH...northern WV Panhandle...western into
   central and north-central PA...NY Finger Lakes vicinity

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 051750Z - 051945Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe gusts are possible and will
   potentially be capable of isolated to widely scattered wind damage. 
   A severe thunderstorm watch is not currently anticipated, but
   mesoscale and convective trends will continue to be monitored for
   possibility for a small severe thunderstorm watch.

   DISCUSSION...Visible-satellite imagery shows a bubbling cumulus
   field from the NY Finger Lakes southwestward into eastern OH, which
   is immediately to the east of an MCV moving eastward across
   southwest OH and another weaker MCV near Cleveland.  As temperatures
   warm into the mid 80s and further mixing results in dewpoints in the
   58-62 deg F range, 0-2 km lapse rates will steepen and convective
   inhibition will continue eroding.  Scattered thunderstorms will
   likely develop over the next few hours.  Slightly stronger 5-6 km
   flow (30 kt) is indicated in model guidance from I-80 northward
   which may aid in multicellular organization compared to the upper OH
   Valley farther southwest.  The stronger storms this afternoon may
   yield a threat for localized strong to severe gusts capable of wind
   damage.

   ..Smith.. 06/05/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...

   LAT...LON   42037599 41517604 40857746 40167997 39328173 39448209
               39758229 40168223 40748179 42437860 42577750 42567679
               42447624 42037599 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN