Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1117

   Mesoscale Discussion 1117
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1103 AM CDT Thu Jun 05 2025

   Areas affected...TX Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 051603Z - 051800Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated threat for large hail may develop through
   midday but the overall severe risk/evolution remain uncertain.  Will
   monitor convective trends for the possibility of a Watch.

   DISCUSSION...Visible-satellite/radar mosaic shows thunderstorms
   developing within a moist/warm conveyor in the TX Panhandle
   primarily to the north of I-40.  There appears to be an arcing
   stationary standing wave-like feature that this convection
   initiated.  Surface analysis indicates a relatively stable/moist
   near-surface layer with temperatures in the mid 60s deg F and
   dewpoints in the lower 60s.  Some thinning of the stratus is
   expected over the next few hours beneath a capping layer likely near
   750 mb (per 12 UTC Midland raob).  It is unclear whether this
   convection is able to transition to become surface-based over the
   next few hours.  

   The Amarillo, TX WSR-88D VAD shows flow veering and strengthening
   with height to around 50-kt at 7 km AGL and an elongated hodograph. 
   Expecting continued but gradual thinning of the stratus and heating
   of the boundary layer to result in a very unstable airmass
   developing during the early to mid afternoon as MLCAPE increases
   from 1000 to 3000+ J/kg.  Given this increase in buoyancy and shear
   supporting supercells, the recently developed late morning updrafts
   may become supercellular and pose a risk for large hail over the
   next 1-2 hours.  Low confidence exists regarding the convective
   scenario towards the early afternoon.

   ..Smith/Thompson.. 06/05/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA...

   LAT...LON   35320202 35540245 35870245 36260191 36279998 35999973
               35429976 35190025 35320202 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN