Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1115

   Mesoscale Discussion 1115
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0914 PM CDT Wed Jun 04 2025

   Areas affected...parts of east central New Mexico into the Texas
   Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 365...

   Valid 050214Z - 050415Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 365
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Strong thunderstorm development is likely to persist into
   the 10 PM to Midnight CDT time frame, accompanied by a risk for
   large hail and perhaps a tornado near/south of I-40 into the
   Amarillo vicinity, and a general increase in strong surface gusts.

   DISCUSSION...The initial storm cluster emanating from the higher
   terrain of central New Mexico is now approaching the Texas state
   border to the north of Clovis, preceded by a more recently
   developing and upscale growing cluster of storms which still
   includes a notable lead supercell structure.  Convection is likely
   still being supported by large-scale forcing for ascent accompanying
   a west-southwesterly mid/upper jet streak nosing east of the
   southern Rockies through the south central Great Plains, and may
   still be in the process of acquiring its most unstable updraft
   inflow.  

   Based on objective analysis and model forecasts, this is likely to
   maintain strong/severe thunderstorm development at least another
   couple of hours.  It is possible that this may include the
   maintenance of the lead supercell structure posing a risk for severe
   hail, a perhaps potential for a brief tornado, through areas near
   and just south of the Amarillo vicinity.  Otherwise, a general
   consolidation and/or upscale growth may contribute to a
   strengthening surface cold pool with increasing strong surface
   gusts, before convection wanes later tonight.

   ..Kerr.. 06/05/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   34880413 35240368 35600312 35940180 35070115 34590171
               34050331 34110405 34490427 34880413 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN