Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1109

   Mesoscale Discussion 1109
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1157 AM CDT Wed Jun 04 2025

   Areas affected...Northeast Indiana...northwest Ohio and southeast
   Lower Michigan

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 041657Z - 041900Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated wind damage will be possible this afternoon with
   cells/clusters in a broken band, though a severe thunderstorm watch
   appears unlikely at this time.

   DISCUSSION...Ahead of a slow-moving cold front and associated
   thicker cloud band, a convergence/differential heating zone is
   established from northern IN into southeast Lower MI.  Continued
   surface heating of a moist boundary layer, beneath relatively poor
   midlevel lapse rates, will drive MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg this
   afternoon with minimal convective inhibition.  The zone of stronger
   surface heating/destabilization coincides with a belt of 40-50 kt
   midlevel flow and similar vertical shear (mainly straight
   hodographs).  Weak forcing for ascent and minimal convective
   inhibition suggest scattered thunderstorm/cluster development early
   this afternoon, with storms expected to spread east-northeastward
   through late afternoon.  Isolated wind damage will be possible with
   the strongest storms, especially with any more north-south oriented
   line segments, in an environment with steep low-level lapse rates. 
   At this time, the expectation is for strong-severe outflow winds and
   damage potential to remain rather isolated, thus a watch is not
   currently anticipated.

   ..Thompson/Smith.. 06/04/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...

   LAT...LON   42058317 40918457 40438521 40198567 40308604 40798612
               41328581 42168470 43818281 43808264 43008252 42058317 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH