Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1103

   Mesoscale Discussion 1103
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0806 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025

   Areas affected...Central MO into far western IL

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 361...

   Valid 040106Z - 040230Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 361
   continues.

   SUMMARY...At least an isolated severe threat may persist through
   late evening.

   DISCUSSION...Some increase in convective intensity has recently been
   noted across southwest MO, where a line segment has developed in the
   vicinity of an outflow boundary left behind by the earlier QLCS. The
   environment (as sampled by the 00Z SGF sounding) is characterized by
   rich low-level moisture, weak midlevel lapse rates, and moderate
   buoyancy. Deep-layer shear is relatively modest, but flow in the
   lowest 3 km is rather strong, and some increase in damaging-wind
   potential is possible if a cold pool can become established. 0-1 km
   SRH of greater than 100 m2/s2 could also support localized tornado
   potential, especially near the remnant outflow boundary. If this
   developing line segment becomes more organized and continues
   eastward, then local expansion of WW 361 may be needed.

   ..Dean/Hart.. 06/04/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...

   LAT...LON   38599383 38929283 39279168 39479078 39199039 38719047
               37919112 37769161 37729217 37709271 37739303 37739342
               37769368 38069357 38249353 38599383 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN