SPC MD 1111

MD 1111 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS

Mesoscale Discussion 1111
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0135 PM CDT Wed Jun 04 2025

Areas affected...East central and northeast Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 041835Z - 041930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A few strong storms with isolated wind damage potential
will be possible, but a watch is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Visible imagery and modified forecast soundings suggest
that convective initiation is underway along and just ahead of a
slow-moving cold front across east central and northeast TX. 
Surface temperatures are warming into the low-mid 80s F with
dewpoints in the low-mid 70s, with MLCAPE of 2000 J/kg or greater. 
Though effective bulk shear suggests some potential for organized
storms, almost all of the stronger flow is above 6 km AGL, with very
small hodographs below 6 km.  The relatively weak low-midlevel
vertical shear and warm midlevel temperatures will limit the
potential for large hail, leaving isolated downbursts as the primary
concern.  Overall storm intensity and duration appear insufficient
to warrant a watch.

..Thompson/Smith.. 06/04/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...

LAT...LON   32299435 31389476 30609563 30299646 30589675 30969646
            32479538 33559502 33709481 33569451 33319422 32299435 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH

Read more
[og_img]

2025-06-04 18:45:03