Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1096

   Mesoscale Discussion 1096
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0446 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025

   Areas affected...Southwest MO

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 032146Z - 032315Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms are possible late this afternoon,
   with additional storms expected this evening.

   DISCUSSION...A few strong storms have developed this afternoon
   across southwest MO, within a unstable (MLCAPE in excess of 2000
   J/kg) and weakly capped environment. Deep-layer shear is relatively
   marginal (generally 30 kt or less based on objective mesoanalyses
   and regional VWPs), but sufficient for organized multicells and
   perhaps a marginal supercell or two. Hail and locally damaging winds
   will be possible in the short term with the strongest cells.
   Favorable low-level moisture and 0-1 km SRH of around 100 m2/s2
   could also support a localized tornado threat if any supercell can
   be sustained. 

   Additional storms will move into the region from the west this
   evening, with some severe potential. Watch issuance is possible into
   the evening, depending on observational trends regarding ongoing
   convection and also the later storms that will approach from the
   west.

   ..Dean/Hart.. 06/03/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...

   LAT...LON   37249193 36619335 36689450 37779452 38079389 38249301
               38349188 38079143 37249193 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN