Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1095

   Mesoscale Discussion 1095
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0401 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025

   Areas affected...northern to central Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 032101Z - 032300Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage through
   the late afternoon and evening hours across northern Texas with a
   more isolated severe threat with southward extent. Watch issuance is
   possible in the coming hours to address these concerns.

   DISCUSSION...Latest GOES imagery and lightning data show deepening
   cumulus with a few lightning flashes developing along a dryline from
   northwest TX southward towards the I-10 corridor. Across northwest
   to northern TX, thunderstorm coverage should gradually increase as
   an approaching cold front begins to impinge on the dryline/warm
   sector. Moderate buoyancy across the warm sector coupled with 35-45
   knots of deep-layer wind shear will promote initially discrete cells
   with a large hail/sporadic severe wind risk. With time, discrete
   cells should merge within the approaching line and favor an
   increasing severe wind risk across northern TX this evening. 

   Further south, weaker forcing for ascent should favor more isolated
   convection, and recent CAM guidance continues to show uncertainty
   regarding storm coverage. Nonetheless, the convective environment
   will favor robust thunderstorms with an attendant hail/wind risk,
   and building cumulus along the dryline hints that initiation remains
   possible. Convective trends will continue to be monitored and watch
   issuance may be needed for parts of the region (though watch
   issuance is more probable for portions of northwest/northern TX).

   ..Moore/Hart.. 06/03/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...

   LAT...LON   30340059 30270104 30250149 30270169 30380187 30600190
               30840177 31050150 32940008 33529954 33629916 33599785
               33499731 33269707 32719710 32259730 31899774 31449835
               30989911 30579987 30340059 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN