Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1093

   Mesoscale Discussion 1093
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0339 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025

   Areas affected...portions of eastern IL and northwest IL

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 032039Z - 032245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe potential will increase over the next couple of
   hours. A new watch downstream from Tornado Watch 359 may be needed
   late this afternoon across parts of eastern IA into northwest IL.

   DISCUSSION...Airmass recovery has slowly occurred across eastern IA
   into northwest IL in the wake of morning convection. Temperatures
   have warmed into the upper 70s to low 80s, and dewpoints from 66-72
   F are contributing to increasing MLCAPE. With time, vertical shear
   is expected to remain favorable for organized convection as the QLCS
   across northern MO track east/northeast with time and additional
   convection develops along a cold front oriented across eastern IA.
   Damaging gusts will be the main hazard with this activity. However,
   the VWP at KDVN shows some enlargement of the low-level hodograph,
   due in part to a 30-40 kt 850 mb southwesterly low-level jet over
   the region, which is also supporting 0-1 km SRH around 100-150
   m2/s2. As such, a tornado or two also could occur in addition to
   strong gusts. A downstream watch may be needed in the next couple
   hours.

   ..Leitman/Smith.. 06/03/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

   LAT...LON   40649289 42129151 42459056 42448959 41758928 40558970
               40259051 40209125 40489235 40649289 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN