Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1091

   Mesoscale Discussion 1091
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0132 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025

   Areas affected...portions of WI into Upper MI

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 031832Z - 032030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Locally strong gusts to 50 mph, and small hail will be
   possible through the afternoon. Overall severe potential is expected
   to remain limited and a watch is not currently expected.

   DISCUSSION...A band of storms is currently moving across northern IL
   into southeast WI within a warm advection regime. A 30-40 kt 850 mb
   low-level jet is aiding in some storm organization. Isolated strong
   gusts will be possible with ongoing and developing convection.
   Temperatures have warmed into the low 80s across much of eastern WI
   with low 60s dewpoints, supporting modest instability. Given strong
   deep-layer flow and areas of steepened low-level lapse rates,
   locally strong gusts are possible (and a 44 kt gust was noted about
   30 minutes ago at KRFD). Temperatures aloft are marginal for hail
   production, with around -8 to -10 C at 500 mb is noted in forecast
   soundings. Nevertheless, sufficient instability and elongated
   hodographs suggest some small hail could accompany stronger cores.
   Overall severe potential is expected to remain limited, and a watch
   is not expected at this time.

   ..Leitman/Smith.. 06/03/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...LOT...MKX...ARX...

   LAT...LON   44169056 45328964 46038830 46538702 46478620 46128609
               44918683 43338739 42268783 42198848 42298898 42678938
               43339006 43739049 44169056 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN