Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1090

   Mesoscale Discussion 1090
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1259 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025

   Areas affected...Eastern Kansas northeastward into southeastern Iowa
   and west-central Illinois

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 031759Z - 032000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Widespread thunderstorms are expected this afternoon from
   eastern Kansas northeastward into southeastern Iowa and west-central
   Illinois. Severe wind gusts and large hail will be the primary
   threats, but a tornado or two is possible particularly across
   west-central Missouri and points northeastward.

   DISCUSSION...A strong-to-severe thunderstorm complex is intensifying
   in southeastern Kansas ahead of a cold front draped southwestward
   across the region. The leading edge of the system is more
   cold-pool-driven, and additional semi-discrete development has
   occurred to the southwest. Up to 1" hail has been reported recently
   with these more discrete updrafts. A continued threat for large hail
   and severe wind gusts is anticipated as this activity continues to
   develop and mature as it progresses northeastward throughout the
   afternoon.

   On the broader scale, this convection is located downstream of a
   mid-level shortwave trough sliding east-northeastward through the
   region. Ample boundary-layer moisture is present that -- combined
   with temperatures breaching 80 F amidst some low-level cloud cover
   -- is contributing to moderate instability. This will contribute to
   continued convective maturation this afternoon as bulk shear around
   40-50 kts persists ahead of the shortwave trough. Short-term CAM
   guidance depicts a gradual uptick in system intensity with a mix of
   QLCS and semi-discrete structures. The primary threats will be
   severe winds and large hail with the strongest supercellular storms,
   as well as a slightly broader wind threat if convection along the
   leading cold pool edge re-intensifies. A tornado or two is possible
   later this afternoon in northern Missouri where any supercellular
   structures might be present amidst slightly greater low-level shear
   during peak heating. Watch issuance is likely this afternoon to
   address these threats.

   ..Flournoy/Smith.. 06/03/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

   LAT...LON   37749732 38669618 39299507 40119409 40499329 40539230
               40319167 39649140 38999144 38239265 37549440 37089574
               37129707 37749732 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN