Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1085

   Mesoscale Discussion 1085
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0835 PM CDT Mon Jun 02 2025

   Areas affected...Western/central OK into central KS

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 356...358...

   Valid 030135Z - 030300Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 356, 358
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A threat for severe wind and isolated hail may continue
   into late evening.

   DISCUSSION...An extensive loosely organized QLCS is moving across
   west-central KS into western OK this evening. As of 0130 UTC, the
   strongest convection with this QLCS is located across western OK,
   where a wind gust of 74 mph was recently observed at KCSM, and
   severe hail was reported with a discrete cell in advance of the
   line. Strong downstream buoyancy and an nocturnally strengthening
   low-level jet will help to maintain severe-storm potential into the
   late evening, though rather weak deep-layer shear may continue to
   hamper storm organization to some extent. Localized severe gusts of
   near/above 75 mph will continue to be the most common hazard, with
   isolated hail remaining possible as well. A tornado cannot be ruled
   out given increasing low-level shear/SRH, though the weaker
   deep-layer shear will tend to limit potential for longer-lived
   supercells. 

   Farther north, increasing moisture and instability may allow for
   some intensification of convection into central/northern KS, though
   the competing influence of increasing CINH will eventually constrain
   the eastern extent of the organized severe threat.

   ..Dean.. 06/03/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...LUB...

   LAT...LON   34679997 34839990 35909948 37109891 38329934 39150030
               39569951 39599880 39419815 38989770 38359746 37969733
               36909717 35279765 34779826 34529891 34360003 34679997 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN