Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1080

   Mesoscale Discussion 1080
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0500 PM CDT Mon Jun 02 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of west/central KS/OK into western north TX

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 022200Z - 022330Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...The threat for severe gusts (potentially exceeding 75 mph)
   and isolated hail will increase with time into this evening. Watch
   issuance is likely.

   DISCUSSION...Initial high-based convection across the south-central
   High Plains has intensified as it encountered richer low-level
   moisture and stronger instability across the eastern OK/TX
   Panhandles into southwest KS. Deep-layer shear is currently rather
   modest, but will gradually increase with time as a mid/upper-level
   trough moves eastward toward the region. Strong instability is
   already in place downstream of ongoing storms across western/central
   OK, and moisture/instability will increase with time this evening
   into central KS.

   Steep tropospheric lapse rates are quite favorable for severe wind,
   with observed severe gusts recently noted across the TX/OK
   Panhandles. Some hail potential will also accompany any stronger
   embedded cells. The composite outflow is surging quickly eastward
   across the central TX/OK Panhandles into far southwest KS, and will
   reach areas east of WW 353 and WW 356 by early evening, and
   downstream watch issuance is likely.

   ..Dean/Guyer.. 06/02/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...

   LAT...LON   34179999 36509995 38479994 38839959 38939926 39039901
               39439793 39089757 37429742 36029772 34829841 34129933
               34179999 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN